EnvironmentOpinion Piece

CLIMATE CATASTROPES TO BE FREQUENT IN COMING DAYS

“The battle to secure the planet’s future will be won or lost in the next 18 months,” said the UN Secretary General on the occasion of World Environment Day in June 2024.

Shankar Sharma:

There seems little doubt in the considered opinion of the global scientific community that the global society is facing calamitous consequences of the escalated degradation of our natural resources as exemplified by global climate emergency in the words of the UN.

This is what the UN Secretary General has alluded to in the above-mentioned clarion call for urgent action. If we objectively consider the specific scenario of India, it is impossible not to be alarmed about our policies, practices, and status of our environment.   

Recently, a news item “New Delhi to be 4.5 degree Celsius hotter: New map predicts climate 60 years from now” – should suffice to indicate the climate catastrophe awaiting our people, unless adequate and effective actions to address such credible threats are taken starting from now. 

DEVELOPMENT DRIVEN POLICIES

But deplorably, our communities seem to be driven down a steep slope of environmental catastrophe by the policies and practices of successive governments at the Centre and State during the last two-three decades.  A quick look at our energy/ electricity sector alone can indicate the seriousness of the prevailing scenario.

The recurring news reports in the recent times of frequent climate disasters should indicate the suicidal policies being pursued in our country. It further indicates the multiple options available to us to embark on a green and sustainable energy pathway, and the associated developments/ thinking from around the world, which are of huge relevance to our own country.

COAL, OUR BACKBONE

Even in 2024, the economic survey by the Indian government reveals that Coal is likely to remain the backbone of the country’s energy system for next two decades; that is till 2045. This is as against the global consensus that the energy related GHGs should peak by 2030. 

Scores of additional coal mines are being proposed, and dozens of additional power plants are being built at enormous social and environmental costs.

SMALL MODULAR REACTORS

A large number of nuclear power plants, under the guise of SMRs (Small Modular Reactors), are being proposed to be built in the next few decades.

Tata Steel alone is reported to be examining the feasibility of putting up about 200 Bharat Small Reactors (SMRs), of 220 MW each, totaling about 45 GW of capacity. 

But none of the credible and serious concerns of civil society groups have even been attempted to be addressed by our authorities in the last 15-20 years. Are all the associated environmental and social costs/ risks acceptable/ inevitable for us?

SCARY EXPANSION OF HYDRO-POWER PLANTS

The prevailing scenario is scary even from the perspective of hydro power plants, which are being vigorously promoted as green options.  As per CEA, the current potential of ‘on-river pumped storage’ in India is 103 GW.  Almost all of them are likely to be seriously considered to be built.

How could so many pumped hydro dams be needed; or are they feasible?  These PSPs have astonishingly little energy density compared to oil. To store the energy contained in just one gallon of gasoline takes 55,000 gallons of water pumped 726 ft high (Greenblatt et al. 2012).

SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS

To get a clear idea of this, let us put it this way: It would take 16 Mississippi rivers flowing from a reservoir 650 ft above a second reservoir below to provide just half of US peak load (Palmer 2020). It is scary to even imagine the implications of all this potential getting released in India.  (Ref. Alice J. Friedemann, Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy, Springer, 2021).

DESTRUCTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES

The associated destruction of our natural resources (forests, flora, fauna, water, soil, air etc.) from such a policy paradigm can only lead us to climate catastrophe in the next few decades; potentially much before the “too little, too late” target year 2070 of our country for net zero emission scenario.

Despite numerous credible warnings from the global scientific communities for decades, such as UNEP, UNFCCC, WHO, IPCC, FAO etc., the biodiversity in our country is facing growing threats with the passage of each year.  The forest and tree cover in the country has come down to about 21 percent of the total land area as against the national forest policy target of 33 percent.

 FOREST TARGET OF 33 % IMPOSSIBLE

With wanton destruction of our forest wealth continuing year after year, there is hardly any indication that this trend will be reversed in the near future. Also, the target of 33 percent looks like impossible to achieve; even by the year 2070, which is the target year for our “too little, too late” aim to achieve Net Zero Emission. 

According to one scientific article, the continuing loss of biodiversity will undermine our ability for poverty reduction, food and water security, human health and the overall goal of leaving nobody behind.  Natural ecosystems provide the foundation for economic growth, human health and prosperity.

OUR FATE AS A SPECIES IS DEEPLY CONNECTED TO THE FATE OF OUR NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

As ecosystems are increasingly threatened by human activity, acknowledging the benefits of biodiversity is the first step in ensuring that we look after it. We know biodiversity matters. Now, as a society, we should protect it and in doing so, protect our own long-term interests.” 

If, despite 7 decades of serious “developmental efforts”, through reduction of forest cover, and of Protected Areas (PAs) to less than 5 percent of the land mass, there is still a political perception that the so-called economic development in the country is not adequate. But any further reduction in the area of PAs cannot result in betterment of our communities; instead, much higher levels of community-wise disasters will be certain because of the destruction of biodiversity. 

CALL FOR MINIMAL EXPLOITATION OF NR

Hence, we are not left with any option other than to minimize our exploitation of natural resources (NR) around us.  Since the concerned authorities in our country are seen as least interested in such a strategic perspective, the onus is on civil society groups to try and do all that is feasible to persuade our authorities to review the entire developmental paradigm for the country from the overall welfare perspective of our communities.  

Even the large-scale RE (renewable energy) sources, such as solar/ wind power parks cannot be environmentally benign.

(Shankar Sharma is a power and climate policy analyst.)